George-Marios Angeletos

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An Anatomy of the Business Cycle (with F. Collard and H. Dellas): A new way to detect and summarize salient features of the macro time series. Evidence at odds with existing interpretations of the business cycle. Guidance for building new models.

Dampening General Equilibrium (with C. Lian): Revisiting general-equilibrium effects in macro models. Argue that macro effects are closer to micro-elasticities in the short run. Applications include forward guidence.

Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics (with C. Lian): Reviews and synthesizes recent work on global games, beauty contests, and their applications in macroeconomics. Argues that incomplete information is a vehicle for accommodating frictions in coordination and for enriching expectations.

Quantifying Confidence (with F. Collard and H. Dellas): A quantitative evaluation of the ability of higher-order uncertainty to accommodate the notion that recessions are periods of "weak aggregate demand" and "low confidence", and to capture salient features of the data. [slides]