Counterfactual Equivalence in Macroeconomics (updated version of my Job Market Paper), March 2017
Many DSGE models are both observationally equivalent under a benchmark policy and yield an identical counterfactual equilibrium under an alternative policy. This insight is useful for tackling a number of problems in macro, such as evaluating policy changes in a way that is robust across models whenever researchers are uncertain about features of these models that are difficult to distinguish in the data.
Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy (with Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst and Joe Vavra), August 2017. Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
We document that QE1 had the smallest effects on mortgage refinancing and spending in US regions with the largest employment and house price declines. Then, we study how the regional distribution of housing equity shapes aggregate and distributional consequences of monetary policy in a heterogenous-agent model with mortgage refinancing frictions.
The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles (with Erik Hurst and Juan Ospina), March 2016. Revise and Resubmit, Econometrica
Using aggregate data alone, state-of-the-art models find that demand shocks were the main drivers of employment during the Great Recession. This relies on a degree of wage stickiness that is inconsistent with the flexibility of wages across US states. Then, we combine regional and aggregate data to identify shocks driving aggregate employment.
From Hyperinflation to Stable Prices: Argentina's Evidence on Menu Cost Models (with Fernando Alvarez, Martin Gonzalez-Rozada, and Andy Neumeyer), June 2016. Conditionally Accepted, Quarterly Journal of Economics
We derive several predictions about how price setting changes with inflation both at very high and at near-zero inflation rates for a class of menu cost models. We contrast these with Argentina's unique inflationary experience using micro-data on prices underlying the CPI.
Old Working Papers