Tomas E. Caravello

To be posted.

• The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk (with Marc de la Barrera).
  July 2026
   

• Evaluating Monetary Policy Counterfactuals: (When) Do We Need Structural Models? (with Alisdair McKay and Christian K. Wolf). 
  NBER Working Paper 32988. March 2026. 
   

• FCI-star (with Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek). 
  NBER Working Paper 33952. January 2026.
   

• Reassessing Central Bank Reputation: Beyond Long-Run Expectations (with Alex Carrasco-Martínez and Pedro Martínez-Bruera).
  March 2026
   

• Financial Conditions Targeting (with Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek). 
  NBER Working Paper 33206. August 2025. 
   

• Disentangling Sign and Size Non-linearities (with Pedro Martínez-Bruera).
  June 2024.
   

• Chronicle of a Dollarization Foretold: Inflation and Exchange Rates Dynamics (with Pedro Martínez-Bruera and Iván Werning). 
  NBER Working Paper 31763. October 2023.
   

• Dollarization Dynamics (with Pedro Martínez-Bruera and Iván Werning). 
  NBER Working Paper 31296. June 2023.
   

• On the Sources of the Aggregate Risk Premium: Risk Aversion, Bubbles or Regime-switching? (with John Driffill, Turalay Kenc, and Martin Sola). 
  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 166, September 2024. 
   

• Rational Bubbles: Too Many to be True? (with Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola).
  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 151, June 2023.