Publications & Papers

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Type
Macroeconomics

Speculative Growth and the AI “Bubble”

Ricardo J. Caballero
July 2026
International Economics

Should We Tax Trade? A Pigouvian Perspective

Arnaud Costinot and Ivan Werning
July 2026
Labor Economics

Baby Busts and Growth Booms: Demographic Change and the Macroeconomy

Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Keelan Beirne, and Andrew Scott
June 2026
Macroeconomics

The Safe-Debt Laffer Curve

Ricardo J. Caballero
June 2026
Labor Economics

Automation and Repression

Daron Acemoglu, A. Arda Gitmez, Mehdi Shadmehr
June 2026

Public Ownership and Anti-Preemption

Forthcoming in RAND Journal of Economics
Juliano Assuncao, Sergey Mityakov, Robert M. Townsend
May 2026
Development Economics

Scaling cognitive science with classroom games for learning mathematics

Joshua T. Dean, Moira R. Dillon, Esther Duflo, Harini Kannan, Elizabeth S. Spelke
May 2026

Digital Safety Nets

BIS WP No. 139
Karaivanov, Alexander, Benoit Mojon, Luiz Pereira da Silva and Robert M Townsend
April 2026

Tacit Knowledge and the Future of Work Debate

Michael Piore
April 2026
Macroeconomics

FCI-plot: Central Bank Communication Through Financial Conditions

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek
March 2026
Economic Theory, Political Economy

How AI Aggregation Affects Knowledge

Daron Acemoglu, Tianyi Lin, Asuman Ozdaglar, James Siderius
March 2026

Sources

NBER Working Paper Slides (short version)
Behavioral Economics, Development Economics, Health Economics

Learning in the Household

John J. Colon, Malavika Mani, Gautam Rao, Matthew Ridley, Frank Schilbach
March 2026
Macroeconomics

Financial Conditions Targeting in a Multi-Asset Open Economy

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek
March 2026

Sources

Experimental Scripts Pre-registration
Behavioral Economics, Development Economics, Health Economics

Not Learning from Others

John J. Colon, Malavika Mani, Gautam Rao, Matthew Ridley, Frank Schilbach
March 2026
Labor Economics, Macroeconomics

Automation and Polarization

Journal of Political Economy, 134(3), pp. 1017-1072.
Daron Acemoglu, Jonas Loebbing
March 2026
Econometrics

Estimation and exclusion restrictions in clustered linear models

Anna Mikusheva, Mikkel Sølvsten and Baiyun Jing
March 2026

Who Gets What in Education: Can School Matching Improve Student Achievement?

NBER Working Paper #34936
Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag A. Pathak, Christopher R. Walters
March 2026
Development Economics

AI-Enhanced Handheld ECGs to Screen for Prior Myocardial Infarction in Rural India

Jenny Wang
Alexander Schubert
Nikhil Kanakamedala
Madeline McKelway
Luke Messac
Cyrus Reginald
Frank Schilbach
T.S. Selvavinayagam
Girija Vaidyanathan
Esther Duflo
Ziad Obermeyer
January 2026