Business Cycles and Stabilization Policy


A Semistructural Methodology for Policy Counterfactuals, January 2023. Journal of Political Economy. BibTex

A methodology for constructing counterfactuals with respect to policy rule changes without committing to a particular model.

Does Fiscal Integration Help Stabilize Regional Busines Cycles? March 2022. BibTex.

Yes. In a counterfactual US economy without fiscal integration, the state-level volatility of employment increases substantially.

Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries (with Christian K. Wolf), February 2022. R&R, The Review of Economic StudiesSlidesBibTex.

Weak pent-up demand hampers the recovery from recessions concentrated in services and non-durables.

The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles (with Erik Hurst and Juan Ospina), November 2019. EconometricaSlidesBibTex.

We show how to draw inferences from regional evidence about aggregate fluctuations with the aid of a DSGE model.

Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy (with Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst and Joe Vavra), February 2019. The Quarterly Journal of EconomicsSlidesBibTex.

The strength of the refinancing channel of monetary policy varies over time with the regional distribution of housing equity.

From Hyperinflation to Stable Prices: Argentina's Evidence on Menu Cost Models (with Fernando Alvarez, Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Andy Neumeyer), Feburary 2019. The Quarterly Journal of EconomicsSlidesBibTex.

We derive and test predictions of menu cost models at high and low inflation, and compute the cost of a hyperinflation.

    New Technologies and Governments


    Inefficient Automation (with Nathan Zorzi), February 2022. R&R, The Review of Economic Studies. SlidesBibTex.

    Slowing down automation can be justified on efficiency grounds when it displaces workers who are financially vulnerable.

    Fast and Slow Technological Transitions (with Rodrigo Adão and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar), February 2023. BibTex.

    Economies adjust more slowly to technological innovations when skill specificity is stronger.

    AI-tocracy (with Andrew Kao, David Yang, and Noam Yuchtman), January 2023. Accepted, The Quarterly Journal of EconomicsBibTex.

    In China, facial recognition AI is used for suppressing civil unrest and the regime’s demand for the technology fosters innovation.

    Exporting the Surveillance State via Trade in AI (with Andrew Kao, David Yang and Noam Yuchtman), January 2023. Brookings Center on Regulation and Markets working paper. BibTex

    Autocracies and weak democracies are more likely to import facial recognition AI from China.

    Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI firms in China (with David Yang and Noam Yuchtman), January 2022. Forthcoming, The Review of Economic StudiesSlidesBibTex.

    Access to government data fosters commercial AI innovation because data and algorithms are shareable across uses.

    Work in Progress


    The Life-Cycle of Concentrated Industries (with Paco Buera)