Targeting Precision Medicine: Evidence from Prenatal Screening
(with Peter Conner, Liran Einav and Petra Persson) 
Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy

A Blueprint for U.S. Health Insurance Policy 
(with Liran Einav)
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 43(3), Summer 2024, forthcoming
"Point/Counterpoint" follow up: Counterpoint (by Jason Furman), our response, and Furman's final word.


A Blueprint for U.S. Health Insurance Reform
(with Liran Einav)
Annals of Internal Medicine, 177(5), May 2024.

The Camden Coalition Care Management Program Improved Intermediate Care Coordination: A Randomized Controlled Trial
(with Joel C. Cantor, Jesse Gubb, Margaret Koller, Aaron Truchil,  Ruohua Annetta Zhou and Joseph Doyle)
Health Affairs, January 2024, 43:1


Designing US health insurance from scratch: A proposal for universal basic coverage
(with Liran Einav)
Hamilton Project, October 2023.

Empirical analyses of selection and welfare in insurance markets: a self‐indulgent survey
(with Liran Einav)
The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 48(2), September 2023, 167-191

Long Term Care Hospitals: A Case Study in Waste
(with Liran Einav and Neale Mahoney)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 125(4), July 2023, 745-765
Online appendices

Why is End of Life Spending So High? Evidence from cancer patients
(with Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Tzvi Shir, Salomon Stemmer, Ran Balicer)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 125(3), May 2023, 511-527
Online appendices
Replication code

The Health Wedge and Labor Market Inequality
(with Casey C. McQuillan, Owen M. Zidar, Eric Zwick)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2023, 425-475

The risk of losing health insurance in the United States is large, and remained so after the Affordable Care Act
(with Liran Einav)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 2023


A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise
(with Petra Persson, Maria Polyakova, and Jesse M. Shapiro)
American Economic Review: Insights December 2022
Onlines appendices
Replication code

Out of the Woodwork: Enrollment Spillovers in the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
(with Adam Sacarny and Katherine Baicker)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 14(3) August 2022, 273-95
Online appendices
Replication Code

Voluntary Regulation: Evidence from Medicare Payment Reform
(with Liran Einav, Yunan Ji and Neale Mahoney)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(1), February 2022, 565-618   
Online appendices
Replication code

Financial Incentives to Facilities and Clinicians Treating Patients With End-stage Kidney Disease and Use of Home Dialysis
(with Liran Einav, Yunan Ji and Neale Mahoney) 
JAMA Health Forum, October 2022;3(10):e223503


The IO of Selection Markets
(with Liran Einav and Neale Mahoney) 
Handbook of Industrial Organization, edited by Kate Ho, Ali Hortacsu, and Alessandro Lizzeri, Elsevier, Volume 5(1), Chapter 14, 389-426, December 2021 

The Challenges of Universal Health Insurance in Developing Countries- Experimental Evidence from Indonesia’s National Health Insurance
(with Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken, Arianna Ornaghi, and Sudarno Sumarto)
American Economic Review, 111(9):3035-3063, September 2021
Online appendices
Replication code

Place-Based Drivers of Mortality - Evidence from Migration
(with Matthew Gentzkow and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Review, 111(8):2697-2735, August 2021
Online appendices
Replication code

Beyond Causality: Additional Benefits of Randomized Controlled Trials for Improving Health Care Delivery   
(with Marcella Alsan) 
Milbank Quarterly, July 2021  

Racial Disparities In Excess All-Cause Mortality During The Early COVID-19 Pandemic Varied Substantially Across States
(With Maria Polyakova, Victoria Udalova, Geoffrey Kocks, Katie Genadek, Keith Finlay)
Health Affairs 40, No 2. 307-316. 2021    
Online appendices



Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts
(with Maria Polyakova, Geoffrey Kocks, and Victoria Udalova)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (45), 117 (45): 27934-27939. November 10 2020
Online appendices

Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference
(with Nathan Hendren)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34 (4): 146-67. Fall 2020

Screening and Selection- The Case of Mammograms
(with Liran Einav, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail Ostriker and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Review 110(12)December 2020
Online appendices       
Replication code

Randomized trial shows healthcare payment reform has equal-sized spillover effects on patients not targeted by reform
(with Liran Einav, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney)
PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. August 2020
Online appendices

A Strategy for Improving U.S. Health Care Delivery - Conducting More Randomized, Controlled Trials
New England Journal of Medicine 382(16). April 2020

Health Care Hotspotting — A Randomized, Controlled Trial 
with Annetta Zhou, Sarah Taubman, and Joseph Doyle)
The New England Journal of Medicine, 2020
Online appendices
Replication code



The Value of Medicaid: Interpreting Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
(with Nathaniel Hendren and Erzo F.P. Luttmer) 
Journal of Political Economy Vol. 127 No. 6, 2019
Online appendices
Replication code

The Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Voter Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
(with Katherine Baicker)
Quarterly Journal of Political Science 14(4): 383-400. 2019 
Online appendices
Replication code       

Take-up and Targeting- Experimental Evidence from SNAP
(with Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3):1505–1556. August 2019
Online appendices   
Replication code

Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare
(with Vilsa Curto, Liran Einav, Jonathan Levin and Jay Bhattacharya)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11(2): 302-332. April 2019
Online appendices
Replication code

Subsidizing Health Insurance for Low-Income Adults: Evidence from Massachusetts
(with Nathaniel Hendren and Mark Shepard)
American Economic Review 109(4): 1530-67.  April 2019
Online appendices   
Replication code

Clinical Decision Support for High-Cost Imaging: A Randomized Clinical Trial 
(with Sarah Abraham, Joseph Doyle, Laura Feeney and Sarah Reimer)
PLoS ONE 14(3): e0213373. March 15, 2019
Online appendices



Provider Incentives and Healthcare Costs- Evidence from Long-Term Care Hospitals
(with Liran Einav and Neale Mahoney)
Econometrica Vol 86(6). November 2018
Replication code

Mandatory Medicare Bundled Payment Program for Lower Extremity Joint Replacement and Discharge to Institutional Poastacute Care: Interim Analysis of the First Year of a 5-Year Randomized Trial
with Yunan Ji, Neale Mahoney and Jonathan Skinner)
Journal of the American Medical Association, September 4, 2018
Online appendices
Replication code

What Does (Formal) Health Insurance Do, And For Whom?
(with Neale Mahoney and Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
Annual Review of Economics, 10:261-86, 2018

Private Provision of Social Insurance: Drug-specific price elasticities and cost sharing in Medicare Part D
(with Liran Einav and Maria Polyakova)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol 10(3), pages 122-1532018
Online appendices
Replication code

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It
(with Liran Einav)
Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 16(4), pages 957-982. 2018

Predictive modeling of U.S. healthcare spending in late life
(with Liran Einav, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer)
Science, 360, 1462-1465. June 2018
Supplementary Material

The Effect of Medicaid on Management of Depression: Evidence From the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
(with Heidi L. Allen, Sarah L. Taubman and Bill J. Wright)
The Milbank Quarterly, 96(1) , March 2018, 836-883

Myth and Measurement - The Case of Medical Bankruptcies
(with Carlos Dobkin, Ray Kluender, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
New England Journal of Medicine DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1716604. March 2018 

The Economic Impact of Hospital Admissions
(with Carlos Dobkin, Ray Kluender and Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
American Economic Review, February 2018
Online appendices
Replication code



The Uninsured Do Not Use The Emergency Department More - They Use Other Care Less
(with Ruohua Annetta Zhou, Katherine Baicker and Sarah Taubman)
Health Affairs, 36(12). December 2017
Online appendices   

The Effect of Medicaid on Medication Use Among Poor Adults: Evidence from Oregon. 
Health Affairs, 36(12) (with Katherine Baicker, Heidi Allen, and Bill Wright). December 2017  

Outpatient Office Wait Times and Quality of Care for Medicaid Patients
(with Tamar Oostrom and Liran Einav)
Health Affairs 36(5): 826-832. May 2017
Online appendices

Is American Pet Health Care (Also) Uniquely Inefficient?
(with Liran Einav and Atul Gupta)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 107(5). May 2017 
Online appendices
Replication code

Adjusting Risk Adjustment - Accounting for Variation in Diagnostic Intensity
(with Matthew Gentzkow, Peter Hull and Heidi Williams)
New England Journal of Medicine 376: 608-610 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1613238. February 2017
Online appendices
Replication code  

Bunching at the kink: implications for spending responses to health insurance contracts
(with Liran Einav and Paul Schrimpf)
Journal of Public Economics 146: 27-40. February 2017



Sources of Geographic Variation in Health Care: Evidence from Patient Migration
(with Matthew Gentzkow and Heidi Williams)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4): 1681-1726. November 2016
Online appendices
Replication code

Effect of Medicaid Coverage on ED Use - Further Evidence from Oregon's Experiment
(with Sarah Taubman, Heidi Allen, Bill Wright and Katherine Baicker)
New England Journal of Medicine 375: 1505-1507 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1609533. October 2016

Healthcare Exceptionalism? Performance and Allocation in the U.S. Healthcare Sector
(with Amitabh Chandra, Adam Sacarny and Chad Syverson)
American Economic Review 106 (8): 2110-2144. August 2016
Online appendices
Replication code 

Productivity Dispersion in Medicine and Manufacturing
(with Amitabh Chandra, Adam Sacarny and Chad Syverson)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 106(5): 99-103. May 2016

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
(with Liran Einav, Ray Kluender and Paul Schrimpf)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(2). April 2016
Replication code

Medicare Letters to Curb Overprescribing of Controlled Substances Had No Detectable Effect on Providers
(with Adam Sacarny, David Yokum and Stantanu Agrawal)
Health Affairs 35 (3): 471-479. March 2016

Paying on the margin for medical care: evidence from breast cancer treatments
(with Liran Einav and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8(1). February 2016
Online appendices
Replication code



Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: Do Dynamic Incentives Matter?
(with Aviva Aron-Dine, Liran Einav and Mark Cullen)
Review of Economics and Statistics,  97(4): 725-741. October 2015
Online appendices
Replication code

The Response of Drug Expenditure to Non-Linear Contract Design: Evidence from Medicare Part D
(with Liran Einav and Paul Schrimpf)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2): 841-899. May 2015
Online appendices
Replication code

Randomize Evaluations to improve health care delivery
(with Sarah Taubman)
Science 347 (6223): 720-722. February 2015
Longer version



Testing for Asymmetric Information Using 'Unused Observables' in Insurance Markets: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market 
(with James Poterba) December 2014
Journal of Risk and Insurance 81: 709-734. December 2014

The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Force Activity and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
(with Katherine Baicker, Jae Song and Sarah Taubman)
American Economic Review paper and proceedings, May 2014
Online appendices

Medicaid Increases Emergency-Department Use: Evidence from Oregon's Health Insurance Experiment
(with Sarah Taubman, Heidi Allen, Bill Wright,  and Katherine Baicker)
Science, 2 January 2014
Online appendices



Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks 
(with Daron Acemoglu and Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
Review of Economics and Statistics. October 2013
Online appendices

The Oregon Experiment - Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes
(with Katherine Baicker, Sarah Taubman, Heidi Allen, Mira Bernstein, Jonathan Gruber, Joseph Newhouse, Eric Schneider, Bill Wright, Alan Zaslavsky, and the Oregon Health Study Group)
New England Journal of Medicine  368 (18), May 2013
Replication code

The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later
(with Aviva Aron-Dine and Liran Einav)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(1): 197-222, 2013
Online appendices
Replication code

Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance
(with Liran Einav, Stephen Ryan, Paul Schrimpf and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review 103(1), February, 2013
Online appendices
Replication code

What Good Is Wealth Without Health The Effect of Health on the Marginal Utility of Consumption
(with Erzo Luttmer and Matthew Notowidigdo)
Journal of the European Economic Association 11(s1): 221-258, 2013
Online appendices
Replication code

Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data
(with Raj Chetty)
Handbook of Public Economics, Vol. 5: 111-193, 2013



How General Are Risk Preferences? Choices Under Certainty in Different Domains
(with Liran Einav, Iuliana Pascu and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review 102(6), October, 2606-2638, 2012
Online appendices
Replication code

The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: Evidence from the First Year
(with Sarah Taubman, Bill Wright, Mira Bernstein, Jonathan Gruber, Joseph P. Newhouse, Heidi Allen, Katherine Baicker, and the Oregon Health Study Group)
Quarterly Journal of Economics 127 (3): 1057-1106. 2012
Online appendices
Replication code



Insuring long-term care in the U.S.
(with Jeffrey Brown)
Journal of Economic Perspectives 25(4): 119-142. 2011
Online appendices

The Effects of Medicaid Coverage - Learning from the Oregon Experiment
(with Katherine Baicker)
The New England Journal of Medicine, July 20, DOI: 10.1056/nejmp1108222. 2011

Selection in Insurance Markets: Theory and Empirics in Pictures
(with Liran Einav)
Journal of Economic Perspectives (Vol 25 (1): 115-138) 2011



Estimating Welfare In Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices
(with Liran Einav and Mark R. Cullen)
Quarterly Journal of Economics vol. 125 (3): 877-921. 2010
Online appendices

Optimal Mandates and The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence From the U.K. Annuity Market
(with Liran Einav and Paul Schrimpf)
Econometrica (Vol 78(3): 1031-1092) 2010
Replication code

Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets
(with Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics (2): 311-336. 2010



Approaches to Estimating the Health State Dependence of the Utility Function
(with Erzo F.P. Luttmer and Matthew J. Notowidigdo)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99(2): 116-121. 2009

EZ Tax: Tax Salience and Tax Rates
Quarterly Journal of Economics 124(3): 969-1010. 2009
Online appendices

The Private Market for Long-Term Care Insurance in the U.S.:A Review of the Evidence
(with Jeffrey R. Brown)
Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(1): 5-29. 2009

Redistribution By Insurance Market Regulation: Analyzing a Ban on Gender-Based Retirement Annuities
(with James Poterba and Casey Rothschild)
Journal of Financial Economics 91(1): 35-58. 2009



Input and Technology Choices in Regulated Industries: Evidence from the Health Care Sector
(with Daron Acemoglu)
Journal of Political Economy 116(5): 837-880. 2008
Online appendices

Preference Heterogenity and Insurance Markets: Explaining a Puzzle of Insurance
(with David Cutler and Kathleen McGarry)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 98(2): 157-162. 2008

What Did Medicare Do? The Initial Impact of Medicare on Mortality and Out of Pocket Medical Spending
(with Robin McKnight)
Journal of Public Economics 92: 1644-1669. 2008

The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term Insurance Market
(with Jeffrey Brown)
American Economic Review 98(3): 1083-11022008
Online appendices
Replication code



Why Is the Market for Long Term Care Insurance so Small
(with Jeffrey Brown)
Journal of Public Economics 91(10): 1967-1991. 2007

Medicaid Crowd-Out of Private Long Term Care Insurance Demand: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey
(with Jeffrey Brown and Norma Coe)
Tax Policy and the Economy, 21:1-34. 2007

The Aggregate Effects of Health Insurance: Evidence from the Introduction of Medicare
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(1): 1-37. 2007



Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market
(with Kathleen McGarry)
American Economic Review September 96(4): 938-958. 2006
Replication code

Did Medicare Induce Pharmaceutical Innovation?
(with Daron Acemoglu, David Cutler, and Joshua Linn)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 96(2): 103-107. 2006



Dynamic Inefficiencies in Insurance Markets:  Evidence from Long-Term Care Insurance
(with Kathleen McGarry and Amir Sufi)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 95:224-228. 2005



Minimum Standards, Insurance Regulation and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Market
Journal of Public Economics 88(12): 2515-2547. 2004

Static and Dynamic Effects of Health Policy:  Evidence from the Vaccine Industry
Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(2): 527-564. 2004

Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market
(with James Poterba)
Journal of Political Economy 112(1) Part 1: 183-208. 2004

The Interaction of Partial Public Insurance Programs and Residual Private Insurance Markets: Evidence from the US Medicare Program
Journal of Health Economics, 23(1): 1-24. 2004



The Effect of Tax Subsides to Employer-Provided Supplementary Health Insurance: Evidence from Canada
Journal of Public Economics 84(3): 305-340. 2002

Selection Effects in the United Kingdom Individual Annuities Market
(with James Poterba)
The Economic Journal 112(476): 28-50. 2002