Publications

“Inequality and Globalization: Improving Measurement through Integrated Financial Accounts,” Archawa Paweenawat and Robert M. Townsend, manuscript, forthcoming from Princeton University Press.

"Technologies that replace a 'central planner'" Robert M. Townsend and Nicolas XY. Zhang, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113 (May): 257-262, 2023.

"Propagation and Insurance in Village Networks" Cynthia Kinnan, Krislert Samphantharak, Robert Townsend and Diego Vera-Cossio, forthcoming American Economic Review; IDB Discussion Paper No. IDB-DP-960, 2022; see also NBER Working Paper No. 28089, and PIER Discussion Paper No. 115, 2019. IDB Research Insights Article

"From Micro to Macro Development" Buera, Francisco J., Joseph P. Kaboski, and Robert M. Townsend, Journal of Economic Literature, 61 (2): 471-503, 2023; see also NBER Working Paper No. 28423, 2021.  

"The Village Money Market Revealed: Financial Access and Credit Chain Links Between Formal and Informal" Parit Sripakdeevong and Robert M. Townsend. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14 (Nov): 1-20, 2022. Journal Open Access

"Dynamic Bank Expansion: Spatial Growth, Financial Access, and Inequality" Yan Ji, Songyuan Teng, Robert M. Townsend, forthcoming Journal of Political Economy; see also NBER Working Paper No. 28582. Online Appendix

"Resource Allocation in Bank Supervision: Trade-offs and Outcomes" Thomas M. Eisenbach, David O. Lucca and Robert M. Townsend, Journal of Finance, 77 (3): 1685-1736, 2022; see also  NBER Working Paper No. 22201, 2016. 

"A Market Based Solution for Fire Sales and Other Pecuniary Externalities" Weerachart T. Kilenthong and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy, 129 (4): 981–1010, 2021; also NBER Working Paper No. 22056, 2016.Online Appendix Prepublication pdf

"Curbing Shocks to Corporate Liquidity: The Role of Trade Credit" Niklas Amberg, Tor Jacobson, Erik von Schedvin, Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy, 129 (1): 182-242, 2021; see also NBER Working Paper No. 22286, 2016. 

"Distinguishing Constraints on Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP, TFP, and the Distribution of Income." Era Dabla-Norris, Yan Ji, Robert M. Townsend and D. Filiz Unsal, Journal of Monetary Economics, 117 (January): 1-18, 2021. See also CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11742, 2017; NBER Working Paper No. 20821, 2015. 

"The Economics of Platforms in a Walrasian Framework." Anil Jain and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Theory, 71 (3): 877–924, 2021; see also International Finance Discussion Papers 1280. Journal Open Access

"Family Firms, Bank Relationships and Financial Constraints: A Comprehensive Score Card." Alexander Karaivanov, Jesus Saurina and Robert M. Townsend, International Economic Review, 60 (2): 547-593, 2018. Journal Open Access 

"Integrated Household Surveys: An Assessment of U.S. Methods and an Innovation" Krislert Samphantharak, Scott Schuh and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Inquiry, 56 (1), 2018: 50–80. Data Appendix on Dataverse     

"Risk and Return in Village Economies." Krislert Samphantharak and Robert M. Townsend, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 10 (1): 1–40, 2018; also NBER Working Paper No. 19738, 2013. 

"Economic Development, Flow of Funds and the Equilibrium Interaction of Financial Frictions." Benjamin Moll, Robert M. Townsend, Victor Zhorin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114 (24): 6176-6184, 2017 (Formerly as NBER Working Paper No. 19618, 2014.) PNAS Q&A article    

"Human Capital Acquisition and Occupational Choice: Implications for Economic Development" Marti Mestieri, Johanna Schauer and Robert M. Townsend, Review of Economic Dynamics, 25, 2017: 151–186; also CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11825, 2017. Online Appendix

"Village and Larger Economies: The Theory and Measurement of the Townsend Thai Project." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 3, No. 30. Fall 2016. P199-220.    

"An Evaluation of Financial Institutions: Impact on Consumption and Investment Using Panel Data and the Theory of Risk-Bearing." Mauro Alem and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Econometrics, 183(1) 2014: 91-103. . 2004 working paper version

"Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes." Alexander Karaivanov and Robert M. Townsend. Econometrica, 82 (3) 2014: 887–959.     

"Heterogeneity and Risk-Sharing in Village Economies." Pierre Andre Chiappori, Krislert Samphantharak, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Robert M. Townsend. Quantitative Economics 5(1) 2014: 1-27. 2013 working paper version

"The Great Equalizer: Health Care Access and Infant Mortality in Thailand." Jonathan Gruber, Nathaniel Hendren, and Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 6(1), January 2014: 91-107.

"Accounting for the Poor." Robert M. Townsend. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95(5), October 2013: 1196-1208.

"Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India." Shawn Cole, Xavier Gine, Jeremy Tobacman, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5(1), January 2013: 104-35. 

"Insurance and Credit: Micro Financial Underpinnings for Entire Economies." Robert M. Townsend. Presented at the Nobel Symposium on Growth and Development, Institute for International Economics in Stockholm, Sweden, September 3, 2012. 

"Kinship and Financial Networks, Formal Financial Access and Risk Reduction." Cynthia Kinnan and Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 102(3), May 2012: 289-93.

"Measuring the Return on Household Enterprise: What Matters Most for Whom?" Krislert Samphantharak and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Development Economics 98(1), 2012: 58-70.    

"Microinsurance: A Case Study of the Indian Rainfall Index Insurance Market." Xavier Gine, Lev Menand, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. In Ghate, Chetan (ed.) Handbook of the Indian Economy , 2012: Oxford University Press, pp. 167-194.

"The Impact of Credit on Village Economies." Joseph P. Kaboski and Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 4(2), April 2012: 98-133.    

"Village Economic Accounts: Real and Financial Intertwined." Archawa Paweenawat and Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 102(3), May 2012: 441-46.

"A Structural Evaluation of a Large-Scale Quasi-Experimental Microfinance Initiative." Joseph Kaboski and Robert M. Townsend. Econometrica 79(5), September 2011: 1357-1406.    

"Information-Constrained Optima with Retrading: An Externality and Its Market-Based Solution." Weerachart Tee Kilenthong and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 146(3), 2011: 1042-1077.    

"The Geographic Concentration of Enterprise in Developing Countries," John Felkner and Robert M. Townsend. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (4), 2011: 2005-2061. For 2009 working version: 

"Wealth Accumulation and Factors Accounting for Success." Anan Pawasutipaisit and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Econometrics. 161(1), March 2011: 56-81. 

"Financial Structure and Economic Welfare: Applied General Equilibrium Development Economics." Robert M. Townsend. Annual Review of Economics. Ed. Kenneth Arrow and Timothy Bresnahan. Vol. 2, 2010: 507-546. 

"Monetary Theory and Electronic Money: Reflections on the Kenyan Experience." William Jack, Tavneet Suri, and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Quarterly 96(1), 2010: 83-122.     

"Rainfall Insurance in Semi-Arid India: Contract Design, Household Participation and Future Prospects." Xavier Gine, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. In Weather Risk Management, K. Tang (ed.), London: Risk Books, 2010. 

"Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization." Robert M. Townsend and Kenichi Ueda. International Economic Review 51(3), August 2010: 553-597.

"Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand." John Felkner, Kamilya Tazhibayeva, and Robert Townsend. American Economic Review 99(2), May 2009: 1-10.

"Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation." Robert M. Townsend and Sergio Urzua. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13 (S2), September 2009: 268-316.    

"Endogenous Groups and Dynamic Selection in Mechanism Design." Gabriel Madeira and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 142(1), September 2008: 259-93. 

"Growth and Inequality: Model Evaluation Based on an Estimation-Calibration Strategy." Hyeok Jeong and Robert M. Townsend. Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Inequality 12; Supplement S2, September 2008: 231-84. 

"Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue: Inequality." Robert M. Townsend. Macroeconomic Dynamics 12; Supplement S2, September 2008: 149-53.

"Patterns of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India." Xavier Gine, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. World Bank Economic Review 22(3), November 2008: 539-566. 

"Evaluating the Financial Systems of Emerging Market Economics." Robert M. Townsend. Jacob Marschak 2007 Memorial Lecture Presentation. Presented at LACEA-LAMES in Bogota, Colombia, October 5, 2007.

"Selection Into and Across Credit Contracts: Theory and Field Research." Christian Ahlin and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Econometrics 136(2), February 2007: 665-98. 

"Sources of TFP Growth: Occupational Choice and Financial Deepening." Hyeok Jeong and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Theory Special Edition Honoring Edward Prescott 32(1), July 2007: 179-221. 

"Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern India." Xavier Gine, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(5), December 2007: 1248-1254. 

"Using Repayment Data to Test Across Models of Joint Liability Lending." Christian Ahlin and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Journal 117(517), March 2007: F11-F51.B63.

"Credit, Intermediation and Poverty Reduction." Robert M. Townsend. In Understanding Poverty. Eds. Abhijit Banerjee, Roland Benabou, Dilip Mookherjee; Oxford University Press, 2006.

"Distinguishing Limited Liability from Moral Hazard in a Model of Entrepreneurship." Alex Karaivanov, Anna L. Pauson, and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy 114(1), February 2006: 100-144.

"Dynamic Mechanism Design with Hidden Income and Hidden Auctions." Matthias Doepke and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 126(1), January 2006: 235-285. 

"Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation." Robert M. Townsend and Kenichi Ueda. Review of Economic Studies 73(1), January 2006: 251-293. 

"Firms as Clubs in Walrasian Markets with Private Information." Edward Simpson Prescott and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy 114(4), August 2006. 

"Private Information and Intertemporal Job Assignments." Edward Simpson Prescott and Robert M. Townsend. Review of Economic Studies (2006).

"Financial Constraints and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from the Thai Financial Crisis." Anna L. Paulson and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Perspectives, Third Quarter 2005, Vol. 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pp. 34-48. 

"Networks and Finance in Ethnic Neighborhoods." Robert M. Townsend In Credit Markets for the Poor, Patrick Bolton and Howard Rosenthal, eds., (2005) Russell Sage Foundation, New York: New York, pp 179-198. 

"Policies and Impact: An Evaluation of Village-Level Microfinance Institutions." Joseph P. Kaboski and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of the European Economic Association 3(1), January 2005: 1-50.

"Entrepreneurship and Financial Constraints in Thailand." Anna L. Paulson and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Corporate Finance 10(2), March 2004: 229-262.

"Evaluation of Financial Liberalization: A general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice." Xavier Gine and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Development Economics 74(2), August 2004: 269-304.     

"Financial Markets and Poverty: An Algorithm for Policy-based Research and Research-based Policy." Robert M. Townsend. Chapter 1 in proceedings of 2004 Inter-American Development Bank conference. 

"Sampling Design for an Integrated Socioeconomic and Ecological Survey by Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Ordination." Michael W. Binford, Tae Jeong Lee, and Robert M. Townsend. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101(31), August 2004: 11517-11522.    

"Micro Credit and Mechanism Design." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(2-3), 2003: 468-477.

"Collective Organizations versus Relative Performance Contracts: Inequality, Risk Sharing, and Moral Hazard." Edward S. Prescott and Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory, 103(2), April 2002: 282-310.

"The Credit Risk Contingency System of an Asian Development Bank."  Robert M. Townsend and Jacob Yaron. Economic Perspectives 25(3), 2001: 31-48.

"Liquidity Constraints and Incentive Contracts." Andreas Lehnert, Ethan Ligon, and Robert M. Townsend. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 3, 1999, 1-47.    

"Small Business Finance in Two Chicago Minority Neighborhoods." Philip Bond, Paul Huck, Sherrie L. W. Rhine and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Perspectives, Second Quarter 1999, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"General Equilibrium Models of Financial Systems: Theory and Measurement in Village Economies." Youngjae Lim and Robert M. Townsend. Review of Economic Dynamics 1(1), January 1998: 54-118.

"Mechanism Design and Village Economies: From Credit, to Tenancy, to Cropping Groups." Rolf Mueller and Robert M. Townsend. Review of Economic Dynamics 1(1), January 1998: 119-72.

"Discrimination in Financial Services: How Should We Proceed?" Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Financial Services Research 11, February and April 1997, 215-217.

"Formal and Informal Financial Services." Robert M. Townsend. Financial Access in the 21st Century, Proceedings of a Forum, Comptroller of the Currency, February 11, 1997, Washington, D.C., 17-23. 

"Microenterprise and Macropolicy." Robert M. Townsend. In Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Seventh World Congress, Volume II, David M. Kreps and Kenneth F. Wallis, eds., Cambridge University Press, 1997. 

"Formal and Informal Financing in a Chicago Ethnic Neighborhood." Philip Bond and Robert M. Townsend. Economic Perspectives, July/August 1996, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 

"Consumption Insurance: An Evaluation of Risk-Bearing Systems in Low-Income Economies." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(3), Summer 1995: 83-102.    

"Financial Systems in Northern Thai Villages." Robert M. Townsend. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(4), November 1995: 1011-1046. 

"Community Development Banking and Financial Institutions Act: A Critique with Recommendations." Robert M. Townsend. In The Declining Role of Banking, Proceedings of The 30th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, May 1994, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 538-546.

"Risk and Insurance in Village India." Robert M. Townsend. Econometrica 62(3), May 1994, 539-591.

"Targeting Credit and Insurance: Efficiency, Mechanism Design, and Program Evaluation." Mansoora Rashid and Robert M. Townsend. World Bank discussion paper #47, Education and Social Policy Department, November 1994.

"Asymmetric Information in General Equilibrium Models." Robert M. Townsend. In General Equilibrium 40th Anniversary Conference, CORE, June 3-5, 1993, pp.126-134.

"The Medieval Village Economy: A Study of the Pareto Mapping in General Equilibrium Models," Robert M. Townsend. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993. 
    
"Understanding the Structure of Village and Regional Economies." Robert M. Townsend. In Contract Economics, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, Lars Werin and Hans Wijkander, eds., 1992: 114-148.

"Computing Multiperiod Information Constrained Optima." Christopher Phelan and Robert M. Townsend. Review of Economic Studies 58(5), October 1991: 853-883.    

"Comment on Paper by Davis and Haltiwanger." Robert M. Townsend. In Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fischer, eds., MIT Press, 1990.

"Currency and Credit in a Private Information Economy." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy 97(6), December 1989: 1323-1345.

"Information Constrained Insurance: the Revelation Principle Extended." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Monetary Economics 21(2/3), March/May 1988: 411-450. 

"Models as Economies." Robert M. Townsend. The Economic Journal 98(390): 1-24, the Frank Paish Lecture, March 1988.

"Arrow-Debreu Programs as Microfoundations for Macroeconomics." Robert M. Townsend. In Advances in Economic Theory: The Fifth World Congress, Truman F. Bewley, ed., Cambridge University Press, 1987.

"Asset Return Anomalies in a Monetary Economy." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 41(5), April 1987: 219-47.

"Circulating Private Debt: An Example with a Coordination Problem." Robert M. Townsend and Neil Wallace. In Contractual Arrangements for Intertemporal Trade, Edward C. Prescott and Neil Wallace, eds., University of Minnesota Press, 1987.

"Economic Organization with Limited Communication." Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 77(5), December1987: 954-970.
 
"Taking Pure Theory to Data: Arrow's Seminal Contribution." Robert M. Townsend. In Arrow and the Ascent of Modern Economic Theory, George Feiwel, ed., Macmillan, 1987.

"Financial Structures as Communication Systems." Robert M. Townsend. In Technological Innovations and the Monetary Economy, Chapter 5, Collin Lawrence and Robert Shay, eds., Ballinger, subsidy of Harper & Row, April 1986: 163-178.

"General Competitive Analysis in an Economy with Private Information." Edward C. Prescott and Robert M. Townsend. International Economic Review 25(1), February 1984: 1-20.    

"Pareto Optima and Competitive Equilibria with Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard." Edward C. Prescott and Robert M. Townsend. Econometrica 52(1), January 1984: 21-45.

"Equilibrium Theory with Disparate Expectations and Learning: Some Issues and Methods." Robert M. Townsend. In Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: 'Rational Expectations' Examined, Edmund S. Phelps and Roman Frydman, eds., Cambridge University Press, 1983.

"Financial Structure and Economic Activity." Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 73(5), December 1983: 895-911.

"Forecasting the Forecasts of Others." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy 91(4), August 1983: 546-587.    

"Theories of Intermediated Structures." Robert M. Townsend. In the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 18, 1983, Money, Monetary Policy and Financial Institutions, a supplemental series to the Journal of Monetary Economics.

"Optimal Multiperiod Contracts and the Gain from Enduring Relationships under Private Information." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Political Economy 90(6), December 1982: 1166-1186.

"Theories of Contract Design and Market Organization: Conceptual Bases for Understanding Futures Markets." Robert M. Townsend. Prepared for the Conference on the Industrial Organization of Futures Markets: Structure and Conduct, Columbia University, November 1982, Lexington Books.

"Resource Allocation under Asymmetric Information." Milton Harris and Robert M. Townsend. Econometrica 49(1), January 1981: 33-69. 

"Equilibrium under Uncertainty: Multi-Agent Statistical Decision Theory." Robert M. Townsend and Edward C. Prescott. In Studies in Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics in Honor of Harold Jeffreys, Arnold Zellner, ed., North-Holland, 1980: 169-194.

"Models of Money with Spatially Separated Agents." Robert M. Townsend. In Models of Monetary Economies, John Kareken and Neil Wallace, eds., Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1980: 265-303.

"Optimal Contracts and Competitive Markets with Costly State Verification." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 21(2), October 1979: 265-293.

"Intermediation with Costly Bilateral Exchange." Robert M. Townsend. Review of Economic Studies XLV (3), October 1978: 417-425.

"Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis." Robert M. Townsend. International Economic Review 19(2), June 1978: 481-494.

"On the Optimality of Forward Markets." Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 68(1), March 1978: 54-56.

"The Eventual Failure of Price Fixing Schemes." Robert M. Townsend. Journal of Economic Theory 14(3), February 1977: 190-199.

"Allocation Mechanisms, Asymmetric Information, and the Revelation Principle." Milton Harris and Robert M. Townsend. In Issues in Contemporary Microeconomics and Welfare, George R. Feiwel ed., SUNY Press, 1975.